Public Bets Lean Thunder in Must-Win Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 5 Showdown

Thunder Favored as Public Leans Their Way in Game 5

It's crunch time for the Minnesota Timberwolves. With their season on the line, they're up against not just the Oklahoma City Thunder but also a betting market that's leaning heavily toward a Thunder win. Game 5, set for May 28, has the Thunder listed as -8.5-point favorites across every major sportsbook. This isn't a surprise—Oklahoma City has proven tough at home and bettors seem confident they'll take care of business.

The numbers might feel a bit lopsided, especially for Timberwolves fans. The Thunder have an implied win probability of 78.2% according to moneyline odds of -358, while Minnesota isn't getting much love at +282 (just 26.1% chance). For perspective, this is only the fourth game all season where the Timberwolves have been an underdog of at least 8.5 points, which really underlines just how much the odds are stacked against them.

Oddsmakers set the total points for the game at 220. If you break that down, it means Minnesota's expected to put up about 109 points while the Thunder are projected to score around 113. Both those team totals line up with the season's averages, but the pressure on Minnesota's offense is obvious given the stakes.

No Major Line Movement—What Does It Mean?

One thing that stands out is how stable the betting line has been. Since the opening number, the spread has held steady at -8.5 across major platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel. Usually, if big money or a huge percentage of public bets flood in on one side, you’ll see oddsmakers move the line to balance things out. So what's happening here? Seems like there’s enough action on both sides—some trust in a desperate Timberwolves showing, while many believe the Thunder will flex their home-court advantage.

• Moneyline: -358 for the Thunder, +282 for Minnesota
• Total Points: Over/Under at 220
• First Basket Prop Bets: Specific player props are in the mix, but exact numbers haven't been made public

So where are the sharps putting their money? While the public splits aren't super clear, those steady lines tell us the books are happy with where things stand. Props like first basket scorer are getting notable attention, but the main moves are all about the spread and the total points mark. Even with the Thunder being so heavily favored, bookmakers haven't been forced to adjust much—meaning plenty of folks see a fighting chance for Minnesota.

But the Timberwolves have history working against them. Of the teams that have gone down 3-1 in an NBA playoff series, only thirteen have climbed all the way back to win. If Minnesota does pull it off, they’ll be joining a pretty exclusive club. As tip-off approaches (8:30 PM EST on ESPN, with James Capers and Marc Davis officiating), the pressure isn’t just on the players—it’s on every bettor who’s trusted their gut or gone with the crowd. One way or another, someone’s confidence is about to be rewarded—or shattered.